24.09 Meta Expectations

What does banning World Tree mean for the meta?

NSG have announced an updated banlist, marking the end of 24.05 and the start of a brand new meta!

The immediate impact for Runners is obvious, but what does the latest banlist mean for Corps? and how might it shape the meta in general?

World Tree banned

This was probably the most conservative change that the SBT could have made—aside from no change at all—and you could be forgiven for thinking that the 24.09 banlist update will make very little difference. Lat was clearly the best runner ID of 24.05, and banning World Tree does nothing obvious to change that.

But, while World Tree might not have been powering the most successful runner ID of 24.05, it still had a significant warping effect on the Corp meta. The ability of World Tree decks to punish open servers with an insane value engine from turn one, as well as being able to tutor tech cards throughout the game at will, made certain Corp strategies simply unviable in 24.05. The threat of having to face an unbeatable matchup in the form of World Tree Arissana meant that a number of otherwise interesting Corp archetypes went almost completely unplayed.

Let’s take a closer look at those Corp identities that did particularly poorly against Arissana in 24.05, and judge whether they can expect an uplift in performance in 24.09.

An Important Caveat

Identity does not equal archetype. Not all Arissana players in 24.05 were playing World Tree, and so this data, and this analysis, should be taken with a pinch of salt. It’s intended to serve as the starting point for a conversation, rather than the final word.

It is also always worth saying that your tournament chances will be much more improved if you play something that you have practiced and that you enjoy, rather than making a purely theoretical meta pick. Don't let the data get in the way of you having a good time.

Who wins from this update?

Azmari

This one is pretty straightforward.

Arissana has proven to be Azmari’s worst matchup (44% Azmari win rate across 34 games). In fact, Arissana has been the only ID of note to give Azmari any consistent concern. Perhaps surprisingly, the Lat matchup, by comparison, went roughly 50/50 across 44 games.

It’s worth restating that Azmari was the best performing Corp Identity of 24.05. Looking at the data, there is no inherent reason for that to change in 24.09.

Expect to lose to EAzmari by turn 5.

NEH

There are far fewer data points for NEH (only 76 games in total), but what data we do have puts the orbital broadcast center in a very similar place to Azmari. Just like Azmari, Arissana was the only runner that looked to be causing the asset based ID any real problems. While the data is weak, this makes sense from a theoretical point-of-view—given the NEH dependence on unprotected servers, and weakness to tech cards.

Expect to see testing teams unleash their secret NEH brews at Worlds, and to physically dominate the top tables with their extra large playmats.

Ob

Ob had a 43% win rate against Arissana across 56 games in 24.05, so, on the face of it, this update could provide a small boost to the much beloved—sometimes bemoaned—Weyland ID. However, I would caution fans of super massive container ships not to get too excited, as Ob win rates against Lat in 24.05 were even worse (36% across 53 games), and I can only imagine that Lat will increase in popularity in 24.09.

BtL, Outfit, Nuvem and Issuaq are all in a very similar boat (pun intended). Unless we see an increase in NBN popularity cause an increase in Criminal popularity, as a second-order effect, the data suggests that Ob doesn’t stand to regain much of it’s former glory.

Expect to see Weyland fans rejoice—but to be ultimately disappointed.

Sportsmetal

Sportsmetal has been losing games to Arissana (47% win rate), but it has also been losing games to Esâ (41% win rate), Sable (39% win rate), Kit (38% win rate) and Lat (47% win rate). Unless all the Arissana players decide to play Hoshiko—where Sports has a 53% win rate—it’s difficult to see this banlist update making much difference.

Expect to see at least one Sportsmetal in the top cut at Worlds, but don’t expect to see them win.

PE

There are too many different flavours of PE to easily distil the data, but conventional opinion is that Asset and Prana Condenser PE were both very promising archetypes except for the World Tree Arissana matchups—which were unwinnable.

Expect to see some experimental players breathe new life into these forgotten archetypes.

Who loses from this update?

AgInfusion

AgInfusion had one of the best win rates against Arissana in 24.05 (68% over 38 games), so it doesn’t seem like this update will do the Martian ID any favours. It is worth remembering that, in order to achieve this win rate, some deckbuilding concessions had to be made (in the form of Anoetic Void). It’s possible that the latest banlist update opens up some possibilities for players to further refine the list. However, it’s just as possible that the banning of World Tree removes the most compelling reason for players to choose to play AgInfusion in the first place.

Expect to see Sokka continuing to go undefeated with this deck at worlds, and with very minimal changes.

RH

RH was the second best identity of 24.05 (63% win rate). However, unlike Azmari, a significant number of those wins were against Arissana, where RH had a 60% win rate. RH is a deck that already wants to ICE all servers—including archives—and provides very little surface area for World Tree to get any value. If players choose to play Kit or Lat instead, then the overall RH win percentage will quickly fall.

Expect RH to do well in 24.09, but not as well as it did in 24.05.

R+

Possibly because of the devastating impact of Self-Growth Program, R+ has performed admirably against Arissana in 24.05 (58% win rate over 12 games). The 24.09 update might mean that players feel more free to experiment with wider R+ asset builds again, but it might be that those players end up finding more success with NEH.

Expect to see the popularity of R+ increase after this update, but also expect to see R+ win rates decline.

PD / Asa

This update could go either way for the two most popular IDs of 24.05, but I think that, probably, we will see overall HB win rates reduce slightly in 24.09.

In 24.05, PD was slightly happier to sit down across from Arissana (55% across 97 games) than across from Lat (52% across 79 games). Asa is in a very similar—but possibly worse—situation (52% win rate against Arissana, 38% against Lat). If Arissana players switch to Hoshiko, then these HB mainstays will end up profiting from the 24.09 update—but if, for some reason, those players switch to Criminal, then 24.09 will be a complete disaster.

Expect people to keep playing PD, but to win less games with it, and to not be able to put their finger on why.

What does this mean for the meta overall?

This was, by design, a light touch update. It would be strange if, for example, it were to completely reverse the waning fortune of Criminal and Weyland. Strange, but not necessarily impossible—and not necessarily unwelcome either.

Taking it at face value, banning World Tree means that we will probably see more asset decks at the table. More NEH, more PE, and possibly more Ob. This will stretch us, as Runner, to play appropriate tech cards. It might be time to put the 2nd Miss Bones back in Hoshiko.

Corp win rates were at a solid 53% in 24.05. In theory, this banlist update should mean that that we see that number increase in 24.09. In reality, only time will tell.

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24.09 Events

If you’re excited to play in the new meta, then why not come to the Cambridge or Sheffield regionals

21.09 (Cambridge) - East Anglia Regional - TICKETS AVAILABLE (less than 13 tickets remaining!)
05.10 (Sheffield) - North Regional - TICKETS AVAILABLE

Or check out these online events, all of which are a great place to test new decks before worlds

20.09 / 21.09 - NZ Online Nationals, 2024
22.09 - Standard AMT - EMEA
28.09 / 29.09 - Worlds Showdown
01.10 - Running the Kitchen

If you don’t have tickets to worlds, or even if you do, why not come to UK Nationals? It could be the biggest netrunner event in Europe this year!

15.11 / 17.11 (Bristol) - UK Nationals - TICKETS AVAILABLE